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Prediction market on manifold. The Spanish government is investigating an outbreak of African swine fever, and is considering a lab leak from a research center as a possible cause: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/ This market will resolve Yes if, before 2028, Spanish authorities conclude that this outbreak of African swine fever most likely came from a leak from a Spanish lab. Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The lab leak must be from a Spanish lab for this market to resolve Yes. If the outbreak is determined to be caused by foreign actors (e.g., biowarfare from another country), this market will resolve No. Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple authorities scenario clarification: If MAPA/EUVET scientists conclude it's likely a lab leak → resolves YES If there's a guilty verdict in a trial before 2028 → resolves YES (even if scientific authorities disagree) If there's an ongoing trial without verdict but scientific authorities say it's not a lab leak → resolves NO
24h Volume: $1.966. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2028.