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Prediction market on manifold. For whatever reason (ie, "stop the illegals from voting!"), will ICE be deployed in a meaningful fashion to or around polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections? "ICE" is being used as shorthand for all forms of immigration enforcement, including: DHS and its derivative organizations (such as CBP), or the National Guard when deployed for the purposes of immigration enforcement. Resolution criteria The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. This market resolves YES if ICE is deployed in a meaningful fashion to or around polling stations on or immediately before Election Day. "Meaningful" means visible, coordinated presence that could reasonably be characterized as enforcement operations targeting polling locations—not incidental encounters or routine operations unrelated to voting sites. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets, election monitoring organizations, or official statements from election officials, DHS, or ICE confirming deployment. Isolated incidents or unverified social media claims do not constitute meaningful deployment. The market resolves NO if no such deployment occurs. Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that deployment must feel like a concerted effort to suppress polling stations, not just a single isolated incident. While no exact number of polling stations is specified, the deployment must be substantial enough to be characterized as such by news reports. Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): ICE is being used as shorthand for the current administration's immigration-related enforcement forces. The following agencies would also count toward resolution: CBP (Customs and Border Protection) Other DHS agencies National Guard (when deployed for immigration enforcement purposes) Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a detailed tier system for evaluating deployment: Tier 0 - Noise (NO): Social media, anecdotal reports, rumors, unverified claims with nearly nonexistent media coverage Tier 1 - Isolated Incidents (NO): A small handful of encounters near polling locations that could be plausibly explained as routine or coincidental. Media coverage frames them as isolated/unclear/unrelated Tier 2 - Localized Patterns (NO): Multiple incidents within a single city or county with mixed reporting on intent ("officials deny") Tier 3 - Multi-Location Presence (NO):* Multiple states or regions report activity near polling places. Officials deny targeting polls, but some journalists or NGOs raise concerns. Reports use cautious language ("critics say" "may have had a chilling effect"). *Resolves YES only if all parameters are met, which would constitute a greater sum than its individual parts Tier 4 - Coordinated Deployment (YES): Any of the following triggers this tier: Major outlets (Reuters, AP, NYT, WaPo, etc.) explicitly describe a coordinated deployment near polling locations Election monitoring organizations characterize the activity as a concerted effort affecting polling access State or local officials confirm coordinated enforcement tied to polling sites Tier 5 - Official Acknowledgment (YES): White House, DHS, CBP, National Guard, or other relevant agencies openly acknowledge deployment. Internal memos or directives clearly indicate action. Court filings/official testimony confirm it. Update 2026-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the 2026 midterm elections do not occur, the market will resolve based on whether immigration enforcement was deployed in a coordinated, visible way to polling locations or planned polling locations as part of denying the elections. If such deployment occurred, the market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. This market is not a catch-all for midterm interference. Update 2026-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): ICE is being used as shorthand for the current administration's immigration-related enforcement forces. The following agencies would also count toward resolution: CBP (Customs and Border Protection) Other DHS agencies National Guard (when deployed for immigration enforcement purposes)
24h Volume: $5.677. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 11/10/2026.