When will the first One Nation defection or departure in South Australian parliament occur?

Prediction market on manifold. Several members of One Nation have been elected to the South Australian parliament at the 2026 general election. Historically, the party has seen many defections of elected representatives at state and federal level, as well as members who for other reasons fail to complete their term of office. When will a One Nation member of the SA Parliament first either leave parliament or leave the party? The market resolves to the date range in which the earliest of any of the following occurs: Leave parliament includes: a) resignation from parliament b) judicial ruling voiding the member's election c) expulsion from parliament but excludes death in office. Leave the party includes: a) resignation of party membership b) expulsion from the party c) One Nation South Australia branch disassociating from federal One Nation or Pauline Hanson personally d) dissolution of the One Nation South Australia branch This applies only to members elected at the 2026 general election, not to any member who may later join the party by defection from another party.

24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $3,000. Resolves: 12/31/2029.