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Prediction market on metaculus. May 2026: [NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season) > Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season. > The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. `{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 43703, "question_id": 43732}}`
Resolves: 9/1/2026.