Loading
Prediction market on metaculus. CSIS: [How China Could Quarantine Taiwan: Mapping Out Two Possible Scenarios](https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-china-could-quarantine-taiwan-mapping-out-two-possible-scenarios) > China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years. China’s military [frequently flies aircraft](https://chinapower.csis.org/analysis/2022-adiz-violations-china-dials-up-pressure-on-taiwan/) within the island’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and across the Taiwan Strait median line. In August 2022 and April 2023, China escalated in response to U.S.-Taiwan political engagements by staging unprecedented large-scale [military exercises](https://chinapower.csis.org/analyzing-chinas-response-to-taiwan-president-tsai-ing-wen-transit/) around Taiwan. China has also [deployed](https://www.cga.gov.tw/GipOpen/wSite/ct?xItem=160424\&ctNode=8195\&mp=9996) its navy and coast guard in increasing numbers around Taiwan and its outlying islands. > Cross-Strait tensions further intensified in the wake of William Lai’s inauguration as Taiwan’s president on May 20, 2024. Three days after Lai delivered his [inauguration address](https://english.president.gov.tw/News/6726), China commenced two days of large-scale military exercises surrounding Taiwan, called “[Joint Sword-2024A,](https://english.news.cn/20240523/2e8ebbb3171a4f4e96e0147f35fd1df4/c.html)” and accompanied them with “[comprehensive law enforcement operations](https://ccg.gov.cn/lbt/202405/t20240523_2253.html)” (综合执法演练) involving China’s coast guard. Chinese officials [stated](http://eng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/TopStories/16310652.html) that the drills were intended to “serve as a strong punishment for the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces.” `{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 43707, "question_id": 43736}}`
Resolves: 9/1/2026.