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Prediction market on metaculus. On February 28, 2026, the United States in coordination with Israel [launched](https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war) a massive aerial campaign against Iran. The Trump administration initially [justified](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-iran-statements-rcna263243) the attack based on national security grounds, although reporting from the [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/02/28/trump-iran-decision-saudi-arabia-israel/) and [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html) have indicated that pressure from Saudi Arabia and Israel may have also influenced the decision.  A temporary ceasefire was announced on April 8, 2026. Since then it has remained shaky with continued sporadic exchanges of violence, though was [renewed](https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-pakistan-april-21-2026-177a2d0701ef172c3e51686bc1f18f30) on April 21st.  On June 3, 2026, the US House of Representatives passed, by a vote of 218 to 205, [H.Con.Res.86](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/86) which is now headed to the Senate. Some senators have [speculated](https://www.wtkr.com/news/in-the-community/hampton/i-think-youll-see-the-vote-next-week-after-house-passes-war-powers-resolution-vote-in-senate-could-be-coming) that a vote by the Senate on the House resolution could take place as soon as the second week of June, although the Senate version might take longer. According to Nate Silver's[ How popular is the Iran War?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval?utm_source=publication-search) tracker, net support for the conflict among Americans is -22.8%.   
Resolves: 8/1/2026.