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Prediction market on manifold. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the primary reason why Vladimir Putin ceases to be the President of Russia. If multiple events occur simultaneously or in quick succession (e.g., a military coup followed by impeachment), the market will resolve to the initial triggering event. Resolution criteria for each option: Obviously unnatural death: Clear evidence of assassination, missile strike, or other non-natural causes Natural death (or one appearing as such): Death attributed to health issues or age-related causes, or deaths where the cause is unclear/disputed Lost election: Putin participates in an election but is defeated by another candidate Unexpected resignation: Putin voluntarily steps down before his term ends Impeachment: Formal removal from office through constitutional procedures Military coup: Military forces remove Putin from power Term ends and does not participate in elections: Putin completes his term and chooses not to run in the next election Death by accident: The cause of death is external, but unintended [You can suggest options in the comments] The market will remain open until Putin ceases to be President. If Putin dies while in office but the exact cause of death is disputed or unclear, the market will resolve to "Natural death (or one appearing as such)." For more vague criteria, such as "Unexpected resignation", I will judge the unexpectedness to the best of my ability. For example, anonymous rumors about resignation would not be enough to make it expected, but, say, a number of public resignation demands from deputees, ministers or other people in power would.
24h Volume: $76. Liquidity: $2,000. Resolves: 1/1/2041.