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Prediction market on manifold. As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027. This market will resolve to 100% if the post The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
24h Volume: $86. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 2/1/2027.