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Prediction market on manifold. Given https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener and how AI capabilities would need to evolve to be able to create a full movie what training materials and methodologies will be required vs what might be available online. A director is the closest analogy in human terms I could come up with to an AI pumping out a whole movie, so if we restrict our pool of human directors to people initially trained on the same information an AI might have then there is a reasonable comparison group to consider capability gain. Do you think that a director who wins an Oscar between now and 2028 will publicly acknowledge having gotten started using an online course on directing?
24h Volume: $300. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/2/2028.