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Prediction market on manifold. Since the Cold War, Canada has tended to buy American aircraft—first the F-86 Sabre, then the CF-104 Starfighter, and from the early 1980s the CF-18—largely to ensure interoperability with the United States and credibility within NATO and NORAD. The current effort to replace the CF-18 has dragged on for more than a decade, stalled by shifting governments, cost anxiety, and unease about strategic dependence on Washington. After a prolonged competition, Canada selected the Lockheed Martin F-35 as its preferred replacement. Canada plans to buy 88 American F-35 aircraft, ordered in 2022 at a cost now estimated to be more than $27 billion. Canada has been reviewing the F-35 purchase since early 2025. The Swedish Saab Gripen fighter jet represents a tempting alternative. It is cheaper on paper, designed for the North, and accompanied by promises of domestic industrial work and greater control over software and upgrades. The Canadian military continues to emphasize the importance of F-35 interoperability for NATO and NORAD missions. Breaking with the American supply chain would require not only reopening settled procurement decisions, but also accepting political friction with the USA and betting that long-term military costs are manageable. Whether Ottawa will sign a Gripen contract before the end of 2026 therefore hinges less on aircraft performance than on whether Canada is willing to shift its military strategy. For more detail see: Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Canadian procurement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II_Canadian_procurement?utm_source=chatgpt.com Saab JAS 39 Gripen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen Saab wants Canada to buy 72 Gripens and 6 GlobalEyes to fulfil promise of 12,600 jobs https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/saab-canada-gripen-globaleye-f35-9.7043896 Canadian Prime Minister M Carney's speech in Davos https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/speeches/2026/01/20/principled-and-pragmatic-canadas-path-prime-minister-carney-addresses
24h Volume: $616. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.