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Prediction market on metaculus. The Russian Baltic Sea port of [Primorsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primorsk,_Leningrad_Oblast) in Leningrad Oblast is Russia's largest oil-exporting port, operated by Transneft, and has become a recurrent target of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes during the Russo-Ukrainian War. In 2026, several confirmed strikes have occurred: - **March 23, 2026:** A Ukrainian long-range drone strike hit Transneft's fuel storage tanks at Primorsk, destroying or igniting at least four large tanks and forcing a shutdown of port operations. Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko publicly confirmed the strike on his Telegram channel. - **Mid-May 2026:** A wave of more than 60 drones targeted Primorsk and other Leningrad Oblast sites, hitting port infrastructure, a Karakurt-class missile corvette, a patrol boat, and shadow-fleet tankers. Drozdenko acknowledged the fire while saying no oil spill occurred; Zelenskyy claimed significant damage to port infrastructure. - **Late May 2026:** Helsinki Times and Al Jazeera reported further strikes paralyzing Baltic oil exports from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Vyborg. The Institute for the Study of War assessed at least 27 long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russia since May 1, 2026, with rising tempo. No ceasefire is in effect, and both sides have escalated drone warfare through late May 2026. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 3, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`
Resolves: 6/14/2026.