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Prediction market on manifold. Example Prompt: "Make me a 10-minute animated short film in the style of Pixar about a lost toy trying to find its way home." The generated short film should be comparable in quality to a professionally produced animated short, suitable for a film festival. It doesn't need to be indistinguishable from a human-made film, but it should be cohesive, well-paced, and visually compelling. The AI used to create it does not need to be publicly available, as long as its existence and capabilities are confirmed. Intended to be a proxy for telling if we're on track for https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener Some clarifications: This does not have to be a single model and may be a system composed of several programs and models as long as it will do the work from start to finish on its own without human intervention aside from the initial prompt. Update 2026-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Mid 2026" is defined as before September 1st, 2026.
24h Volume: $1,567.783. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 9/1/2026.