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Prediction market on manifold. Context from The Hollywood Reporter: Brandon Sanderson’s Literary Fantasy Universe ‘Cosmere’ Picked Up by Apple TV (Exclusive) It's an unprecedented deal for the author, whose 'Mistborn' series and 'The Stormlight Archive' are being eyed for film and television adaptation, respectively. Resolution: Resolves YES if according to a consensus of credible reporting, filming has begun on a planned TV show OR movie based on EITHER "Mistborn" or "The Stormlight Archive", before EOY 2028. Resolves NO otherwise. Details: Current reporting indicates that Mistborn is likely intended for film and SA is intended for TV. For the purposes of this market it doesn't matter—for either, film or TV both count. What it means for "filming to begin" requires some subjective judgement—I'll do my best to follow the spirit of the question. Filming 30 seconds of test footage does not count—the filming needs to be part of a complete production. I.e., there would need to be reports that this filming is part of the complete production. Typically, this is called "principal photography", but I won't be a stickler for exactly how the media refers to it.
24h Volume: $10. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2028.