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Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES at the start of 2030 if: There is a website at arxiv.org Which hosts papers (preprints or otherwise), free for all to access To which "anybody" can post (after being lightly vetted, as is currently the case), for free, without peer review And nothing else extreme has happened to cause me to disqualify the website from counting as "arxiv". I apologize for the last condition, and feel free to pose hypotheticals! (https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottLawrence/will-arxiv-still-exist-in-2040)
24h Volume: $2. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2030.