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Prediction market on manifold. Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain) *A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions) Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch UTC is used Related markets: @/Nat/when-will-starship-first-deploy-a-s
24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $1,600. Resolves: 1/1/2027.