First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Prediction market on manifold. Market Overview: This market predicts which jobs will be replaced by AI and when it will happen. Each job option has a target year when we'll check if AI has taken over most of those roles in the United States. Resolution Criteria: • The year in each option (e.g., 'Judges <2040') is the target replacement deadline and the resolution date for that specific option. • For user-added options without a year, the market creator will assign a resolution deadline exactly one year after that option is added. • Each job type uses its standard description from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) or O*NET when available. • 'Job replaced' means at least 60% of filled U.S. roles for that job title have core duties performed without direct human involvement, as measured by government data or at least two reputable industry-wide surveys. • For dispute or ambiguity, resolution may be delayed up to three months to gather new/clarifying data before a final decision. • All reasoning and data sources will be posted publicly before resolution. • If, by the resolution date, there is insufficient data or no authoritative way to determine the replacement status for an option, that option will resolve as N/A (not applicable). All reasoning, sources consulted, and steps taken will be posted publicly to justify the N/A resolution. Edge Case Handling: • If automation leads to splitting/redefining a role, the original job's major core functions must be 60% automated/eliminated for YES resolution. • 'Augmented' roles do not count—the role must be replaced/outnumbered by AI systems. • If precise job counts cannot be determined, two concordant sector-wide surveys suffice for resolution. • All participants can dispute unclear resolutions within 14 days of the creator's proposed resolution, after which the decision is final. • All sources and logic used in resolution decisions will be publicly posted for transparency. Terms: • Core duties: The main tasks that define what someone in that job does every day • AI (Artificial Intelligence): Computer systems that can perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence • BLS/O*NET: Government databases that officially describe what different jobs involve. Edit: Final close date of market will be postponed as long as there are open options.

24h Volume: $80.382. Liquidity: $1,200. Resolves: 1/1/2027.