Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Prediction market on manifold. EDIT Let's operationalize it this way: "If Eliezer either expresses that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, or Eliezer strongly implies that he feels this way (eg. by indicating that it is more useful than an additional MIRI-level researcher), then we consider this market resolved to YES."

24h Volume: $250. Liquidity: $1,150. Resolves: 12/31/2026.