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Prediction market on manifold. "Gemini 3" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Gemini 2 in a similar way to how Gemini 2 was the successor to Gemini 1, so Gemini 3.0 pro would count, but Gemini 2.X would not. Models are considered released if they are available on an API endpoint or chat app option that does NOT include a term in the realm of "experimental", "preview", etc. See also: @/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3@/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5 @/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6 @/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225 @/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2 @/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4 @/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp @/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4 @/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3@/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-nano-banan @/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next @/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies that the intent was to capture when "Gemini 3 Pro" as a class of models was considered released, because a "preview" is definitionally something not released. The creator acknowledges there is ambiguity about whether Gemini 3 Pro is currently released or not, given the conflicting signals (chat app shows no "preview" label, but API and other sources do). Update 2026-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator indicates they are unlikely to resolve this market to N/A, as they believe the result will either be quite clear or something that traders would be able to appeal to staff earnestly regardless of the outcome. Update 2026-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is leaning towards resolving NO based on Logan's tweet regarding the Gemini 3 release situation, but has not made a final decision yet. The creator will consider arguments and come to a conclusion soon.
24h Volume: $10. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.