Loading
Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on February 28, 2027, CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) or its controlled subsidiaries receive official government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium-bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Acceptable Proof & Verification Sources: Official corporate regulatory filings or announcements from CATL (SZSE: 300750) on CNINFO or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE). Official government notices from the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources or the Bureau of Natural Resources of Yichun, such as postings on the Jiangxi Public Resources Trading System. Reports from reputable financial news publications (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Caixin, Jiemian News) confirming the official renewal of the permit. Clarifications: Provisional or conditional approvals that explicitly allow CATL to resume mining activities at the Jianxiawo mine count as a YES. Exploration-only permits, mineral processing/refining approvals, or approvals for other unrelated Yichun assets do not satisfy the criteria. Changes to the holding company name or minor adjustments to the asset's naming convention will still resolve YES as long as they explicitly apply to the same physical Jianxiawo mine. Background In August 2025, CATL suspended operations at its flagship Jianxiawo lepidolite clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi, after its mining license expired on August 9, 2025. The mine represents a critical domestic supply of lithium, previously estimated to account for roughly 6% of global lithium supply and 8% of China's total output. Initially expected to resume operations within a few months, the renewal process has faced significant delays due to heightened regulatory audit requirements from the local Bureau of Natural Resources, compliance reviews under China's revised Mineral Resources Law, and environmental standards. As of June 2026, CATL is still waiting for local regulators to grant the license renewal. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
24h Volume: $18,702.676. Liquidity: $105,000. Resolves: 2/28/2027.