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Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if Swift Centre has a better Brier score than Polymarket, across their five forecasts. Resolves NO otherwise. Context: Swift Centre claims that Polymarket is not the ultimate source of truth and that their forecasters can beat Polymarket. https://www.swiftcentre.org/publicforecasts/yk77y2zct07ttcl00lmuk2x2s629fh Here were their five forecasts: 1) The Swift Centre forecasters saw a ~4% chance of the United States acquiring Greenland in 2026, distinctly lower than the 12% that was on the relevant Polymarket question. 2) The likelihood of Russia and Ukraine agreeing to an indefinite ceasefire of peace agreement this year was forecasted at 22%, considerably lower than the ~43% odds on Polymarket. 3) The forecasters saw a ~6.5% chance of the US taking control of the Panama Canal in 2026, lower than Polymarket’s odds of ~15%. 4) The likelihood of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei being out of power by the end of March 2026 was pegged by the Swift Centre forecasters at 27%, compared with Polymarket’s 26%... 5) ...while the likelihood of the US undertaking military strikes on Iran by the same date was estimated at 68%, notably higher than Polymarket’s ~55%. If there's controversy as to the outcomes of the Polymarket markets (Swift Centre disputes the resolution or something), then I will side with Polymarket's interpretation; after all, the Swift Centre are forecasting Polymarket questions, not their own analogues.
24h Volume: $304.513. Liquidity: $2,500. Resolves: 1/1/2027.