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Prediction market on manifold. I'm imagining that I ask an LLM or similar AI system "write me a novel of [number] pages, in the [genre] genre, set in [setting] featuring [type of characters], and dealing with [themes]". Possibly even something like "in the style of [author or mashup of authors]". When I say "good quality" that's just my subjective judgement. It needs to suit my tastes, it doesn't need to be up with my favourite books, but I need to enjoy it, think it was a good use of my time to read it, and not just be pushing through to the end so I can resolve this market. My tastes aren't especially refined. I normally read books between 300 and 1000 pages so I'll probably be looking for books in that range. When I say "instant and cheap" I mean something like within an hour and for approximately the cost of a normal book. If you think the precise details of either of these are important, let me know and I'll set some definite criteria. I expect it'll be obvious one way or the other. If such a service becomes available before the close date, I'll read a couple of examples and judge if I think they're good quality. If I don't feel the bar has been met by 2027 end, I might have to wait a month or two to give me a chance to read a couple of the best books 2027-end could generate. I'll try to resolve as quickly as I reasonably can, but I'm not the fastest reader and if the quality isn't obviously good then I might need to read more than one to be happy with my judgement. I'm not wedded to the format of my example prompt above. But it needs to be natural language (or at least very user friendly) and quite short. For example, maybe you could get something with one reasonable length paragraph, or maybe you can get something a bit more personalised in two or three paragraphs. Again, if anybody would feel more comfortable with a more quantitative criterion let me know and I'll think about it. I won't bet in this market, since it's so subjective. Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Resolution Focus: The market is about whether personalized AI novels can be produced to a basic level of competence, rather than surpassing human authors. (AI summary of creator comment)
24h Volume: $4,389.529. Liquidity: $1,475. Resolves: 12/31/2027.