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Prediction market on manifold. Nectome is a brain preservation startup, comparable to cryonics. They are currently debuting their services, which they claim to be much higher quality than other organizations, but they have yet to preserve any clients. This market resolves to YES if, in 2029, Nectome publicly releases data or is independently verified to have achieved an ideal preservation rate of 75% or higher for its attempted preservations in the last 12 months or at least 10 total attempted preservations, whichever is higher. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. (Thus, in June of 2029, if Nectome releases a report indicating that they only had 2 clients that failed to fully perfuse, out of 20 total, that would resolve YES. If they have a terrible 2027, but evidence shows they got their act together and had all 14 perfusions in 2029 go ok, that would also be YES. If they have only perfused 9 people by the end of 2029, they can't have published a large enough sample to count, even if they're all good enough, and I'll resolve NO.) "Ideally preserved" means that, by the evidence available in 2029, all areas of the brain are well perfused, do not have serious structural damage from the procedure (that would eg make the connectome impossible to read with a scanner), and have tissue quality at least comparably good to the neural tissue presented in their 2026 whitepaper preprint. If no official data or independent verification regarding the preservation quality of Nectome's clients is available by the resolution date, the market will resolve based on the best available reports from reputable scientific or news outlets regarding their technical success rate, according to my best judgment. I won't bet.
24h Volume: $20. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2029.