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Prediction market on manifold. Resolves based on the next Bundestag Chancellor election (expected 2029 or earlier). Resolves YES if some or all AfD MPs vote for the winning Chancellor candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win (absolute majority in rounds 1–2, or plurality in round 3). Resolves NO if the Chancellor is elected without AfD votes, or if AfD votes for the winner but they would have won without them. Note: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on publicly available information (e.g., announced coalition agreements, party statements). In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.
24h Volume: $150. Liquidity: $2,000. Resolves: 12/31/2029.