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Prediction market on manifold. Resolution: Resolves to the number of movies with release date in 2026 which gross >$1 billion worldwide in their original theatrical run. Details: The primary resolution source will be BoxOfficeMojo (although in extreme cases—e.g., BOM is missing some well-documented Chinese release—I can use other sources to supplement). This is the total WW gross for the movie, not the calendar year gross (e.g., "Avatar: Fire and Ash" would have counted as a billion dollar grosser for 2025 despite it not passing that mark until January 2026). There's no perfect definition of "original theatrical run". I'll aim to go by a consensus of credible reporting, and I may resolve early if it's clear that the last movies released in 2026 have no plausible shot of reaching $1B WW. Context: In 2019, there were 9 billion dollar grossers. Post-pandemic, this threshold has become much more elusive. In 2023 & 2024, we had just 2 per year, and in 2025, it jumped to 4. However, Hollywood is counting on 2026 to be a huge year for the industry, with new entries in many of its premiere franchises. Here are some non-comprehensive suggestions of some potential billion dollar grossers: Spider-Man: Brand New Day The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Toy Story 5 Avengers Doomsday Moana Minions 3 The Odyssey The Mandalorian and Grogu Dune: Part Three Michael
24h Volume: $1,410. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.