Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?
Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves "yes" if a major U.S. news outlet reports one or more human fatalities caused by a pathogen whose structure was invented by an ML model. A human must prompt the ML model to create the pathogen with the explicit intention to kill humans.
24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/2/2029.