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Prediction market on manifold. Resolves as YES if at least 500 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2031. Different number of robots: @/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-e5827a19aecb @/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-8b5c5fb5bd63 @/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-9dad526dc238 @/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-dfdcca40f9e1 @/RemNi/will-50k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-0cc08ff63d45 @/RemNi/will-100k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-0adc84c2523d @/RemNi/will-200k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-abb3fe9a6911 @/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-9dce68aa89e4 (this question) @/RemNi/will-a-million-humanoid-robots-have @/RemNi/will-2m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0ebf458206fd Different years: @/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-ec311a558859 @/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-7bcec2feb6cc @/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa@/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-9dce68aa89e4 (this question) Other questions for 2031: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-fa1926d83aec @/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before @/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem These humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question. Each robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 5kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.
24h Volume: $150. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 3/1/2031.