Prediction market on manifold. Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority. Exact same resolution criteria as @chrisjbillington's market, but resolves YES if in any release of The Economist Democracy Index up to and including the 2033 release (likely to be published in early 2034), 20% or more of the listed countries are no longer listed as democracies, being listed instead either as a "hybrid" or "authoritarian" regimes. If there is any dispute on the resolution I will defer to @chrisjbillington if he's willing, or use my best interpretation of his criteria if he is not available. (https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will-the-majority-of-western-democr)
24h Volume: $250. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 3/2/2034.