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Prediction market on manifold. On which days will driving along the full route be possible, in reality, for non-resident cars? The goal of the market is to resolve the question of whether the road can be driven on the day. These things count towards NO: Floods, Fires, Damage to the road, Riots, Police/military, wind, storms These don't count: Nothing. That is, everything counts. If you can't drive it that day, it's NO and if you can, it's YES. If it's not drive-able for a significant portion of the time on that day, it's a NO. I'll default to the single testing time I do, but if there is disagreement, we can look into whether/when actual parts of it were closed. CLARIFICATION Jan 10 2025: If there is a schedule where say from 2-4am there are minor areas closed/detours for construction, that can still be YES. If there is a tree down on part of the road and it takes 30 min to clear that can be YES, it's still "driveable". But, if at say 3pm on the day, a major earthquake rolls 20 miles of highway and cliffs into the sea, then that will be NO, even if in the morning you could have driven it. Similarly, if construction just finishes the night before and a washed out section of the road is officially opened for complete driving at 10am and it stays open through the day, that can be YES. So, we'll judge based on the situation on the target day as follows: Driveable state entire day => YES Intermittent small problems but overall can be driven that day => Can still be YES Moving to a driveable state from a not => Can still be YES Significant parts of the road become non-driveable on the day and will not be fixed that day => NO Road was non-driveable before and through the day => NO It doesn't all have to be drive-able in a single real day (i.e. speed limits, etc.). "Drive-able" means that the whole route is open for people to drive onto. If someone adds tolls or other requirements, that's okay as long as it's possible for a non-US driver in a rental car, or someone from another state, to drive on it. It doesn't have to be human driving - if AI driving is required for any/all of it, as long as a person can buy that within a time span of 2 days, then it can still be considered drive-able. If gas becomes unavailable but EV chargers still work, then it's fine to consider it driveable. If EVs are allowed, but the only charger happens to be on a 1.1 mile (or farther) detour, but you can still go back to where you left and get on the road and drive, YES is still possible. Similar for if gas stations are missing/closed/off the road. Similar for getting off to use the restroom. As long as you can get on at the same spot you got off, that's fine. (Note that if you exit the road at mile say 123.4 through a side road, then get gas, then enter at mile 123.5 (i.e. 100 yards on the south side of the gas station) you are still fine, as long as people who didn't get off at that spot can drive through on the road). As of now, the route is closed but repairs are allegedly underway to allow driving down by summer 2025. The route must go along the coast along CA1 South, staying on 101 from Pacifica going southwards, Pacifica Half Moon Bay Santa Cruz Carmel-by-the-Sea Big Sur San Simeon (this section is washed out now) Cambria Avila Beach Santa Maria Gaviota Santa Barbara Ventura Malibu Finally to Santa Monica If there is a small closure up to 1 mile of off-1 driving is allowed per time. i.e. if there is a 10 foot section that washed out but you can just turn off, drive 100 feet, then get back on, that's okay. Each such section can be up to 1 mile long. If google maps routes you off of Route 1 you can add way-points to force it to stay on 1. If that doesn't work, this is NO. Here is today's route for this as best as I can. There are various disruptions (coastal washed our roads, and fires in LA) I will not NO early. [image]https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jy8-VTysf5i6LTb9Q7pvn_VhELa1aQrso7cXi45r26I/edit?tab=t.0 ^^^ Gemini exploraiton
24h Volume: $2.98. Liquidity: $1,600. Resolves: 7/1/2030.