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Prediction market on manifold. This is the valuation that triggers the maximum bonus for Musk in the next 10 years (US$1.03-trillion). What are the odds it is reached? Update 2026-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on total return for a TSLA shareholder (dividends reinvested), not simply Tesla's nominal market cap. The target is equivalent to achieving 8.6/1.23 times the current share price (buying at $392.65 today). Key scenarios for edge cases: New share issuance: Only per-share value is tracked; dilution from new shares does not count toward the $8.6T target Merger: Only Tesla's proportional share of the merged entity is counted (e.g., if TSLA merges at $1T with a $2T company, only 1/3 of the merged entity's future valuation is tracked) Dividends: Dividends are reinvested, so a dividend payout adjusts the inferred market cap upward to reflect the total return Update 2026-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution criteria is reframed as a total return question: if you buy 1 share of TSLA today at $392.65 (market cap ~$1.47 trillion), will reinvesting all dividends yield 8.6/1.47 times your money by EOY 2035? The target multiplier is ~5.85x (8.6 ÷ 1.47) Dividends are reinvested in the calculation In case of mergers, only the proportional TSLA-derived value is tracked In case of share issuance, the per-share value (not total market cap) is what matters
24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/30/2035.