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Prediction market on manifold. On April 25th I fell of my bike and banged my knee on the pavement. As far as the people I've seen can tell, nothing is broken, nothing is torn, it's just bruised up real bad. I'm currently using a cane, not all the time but a fair bit. I can walk fine without the cane, but if I walk around without it all morning, I feel it in the afternoon. I'm also taking stairs using only my good leg to go up and down -- good leg goes up, bad leg joins it; bad leg goes down, good leg joins it. This market will close partially on vibes, but -- if I am still ever using my cane, rather than having left it in a closet, that'll be a YES. If I'm still taking stairs in my current asymmetric manner, that'll be a YES. If I feel the need to hold off on physical activity to keep my left knee from flaring up at the end of the day, that'll probably be a YES. I will resolve NO at any time between now and market close if I feel that I have pretty much fully recovered. I feel this is correct given the wording ("will I still have" implies that the injury exists throughout the intervening time, so if it goes away that's a NO) If some new injury occurs (say I'm in a car crash tomorrow and break my leg or something) such that I'm still ~disabled at market close, but it's unclear that this is because of the original fall, I will likely resolve N/A. I consider this outcome pretty unlikely. Edited: I originally incorrectly wrote that the crash happened in May, rather than in April
24h Volume: $170. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 4/25/2027.