Overview
Prediction Alpha aggregates real-time data from six major prediction market platforms: Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Metaculus, and Opinion Trade. It provides a unified view of market probabilities, volumes, and trends across every platform in one place.
A key feature is cross-platform matching, which automatically detects when the same question or event is listed on multiple platforms. This lets you compare pricing across venues and identify potential arbitrage opportunities where platforms disagree on the probability of an outcome.
Dashboard Views
The main dashboard offers two ways to browse markets:
- Table View: A detailed, sortable table showing all market data in rows and columns. Best for scanning many markets quickly and sorting by specific metrics like volume or probability.
- Card Grid View: A compact card layout showing key metrics for each market (question, probability, platform, volume). Best for visual browsing and getting a quick overview.
Switch between views using the toggle in the top-right corner of the dashboard.
Filtering and Search
The Filter Panel lets you narrow down the market list to find exactly what you are looking for:
- Search: Type keywords to filter markets by their question or title. For example, search "election" or "bitcoin" to find related markets.
- Platform Filter: Select one or more platforms to show only markets from those venues.
- Category Filter: Filter by topic category such as politics, crypto, sports, science, or economics.
- Probability Range: Set minimum and maximum probability to focus on markets within a specific confidence range. For example, filter for markets between 40% and 60% to find contested outcomes.
You can save frequently used filter combinations as Saved Views for quick recall on future visits. Click the save icon next to the filter bar to create a named preset.
Reading the Market Table
Each row in the table represents a single prediction market. The columns provide the following information:
- Market Question: The full question or title of the prediction market.
- YES Probability: The current probability (as a percentage) that the market resolves YES. Higher percentages mean the market believes the outcome is more likely.
- Platform: A color-coded badge showing which platform hosts this market.
- Category: The topic tag assigned to the market (politics, crypto, sports, etc.).
- 24h Volume: The total trading volume in the last 24 hours. Higher volume indicates more active trading interest.
- Total Volume: The cumulative trading volume since the market was created.
- Liquidity: The amount of capital available in the order book. Higher liquidity means you can trade larger sizes with less price impact.
- End Date: When the market expires or is scheduled to resolve.
- Cross-Match Indicator: An icon showing that this same market exists on other platforms. Click to see the cross-platform comparison.
Click any column header to sort the table by that metric. Click again to reverse the sort order.
Market Detail Page
Click on any market row or card to open its detail page. The detail view provides comprehensive information about a single market:
- Full Description: The complete market description including resolution criteria, which defines exactly how the outcome will be determined.
- Probability Chart: A visual chart showing the current YES probability.
- Historical Price Movement: A time-series chart showing how the probability has changed over the life of the market. Look for trends, sudden spikes, or steady convergence toward an outcome.
- Platform-Specific Data: Details specific to the hosting platform, such as order book depth or contract specifications.
- Whale Positions: Large positions held by significant traders on this market. Whale activity can signal informed money and potential price direction.
- Related Markets: Similar or thematically connected markets that may provide additional context.
- Cross-Platform Price Comparison: If the same market exists on multiple platforms, you will see a side-by-side comparison of probabilities and volumes. Price differences between platforms may represent arbitrage opportunities.
Prediction Market Pulse
The Pulse page is an analytics sub-page that provides a high-level overview of the entire prediction market ecosystem. Access it from the navigation menu under Prediction Markets.
- Aggregate Statistics: Total number of active markets, combined trading volume, and total liquidity across all platforms.
- Platform Breakdown: A pie chart and table showing how markets, volume, and liquidity are distributed across the six platforms.
- Momentum Leaders: Markets gaining the most volume and liquidity in recent periods. These are the markets attracting the most attention right now.
- New Market Tracking: Recently created markets across all platforms, helping you spot emerging topics and events before they gain widespread attention.
Prediction Market Stats
The Stats page offers deeper ecosystem-level analytics:
- Platform Comparison Metrics: Compare platforms by number of markets, average volume, average liquidity, and category coverage.
- Historical Trends: Charts showing how the prediction market ecosystem has grown over time, including total volume trends and platform market share changes.
- Category Distribution: Breakdown of markets by category across all platforms, showing which topics dominate the prediction market landscape.
Prediction Market Trending
The Trending page highlights the most active and noteworthy markets right now:
- Top Markets by Volume: The highest-volume markets across all platforms, indicating where the most money is flowing.
- Top Markets by Liquidity: Markets with the deepest order books, which are the easiest to trade at scale.
- Newest Markets: The most recently created markets, letting you get in early on emerging topics.
How to Use Effectively
- Start with the main dashboard to browse the full list of active markets. Use Table View for detailed scanning or Card View for a quick visual overview.
- Apply filters to narrow results by platform, category, or probability range. Save filter combinations you use often as Saved Views.
- Look for cross-matched markets where the same event is listed on multiple platforms. Price differences between platforms can signal arbitrage opportunities or reveal which platform's traders are more informed.
- Check the Pulse page regularly for market-wide trends and momentum shifts. The momentum leaders section highlights where attention is flowing.
- Use the Trending page to find high-activity markets and discover newly created markets before they gain traction.
- Click into individual markets for detailed analysis. Review the historical price chart to understand how sentiment has shifted, and check whale positions to see where large traders are placing bets.
- Monitor whale positions on markets you find interesting. Large position changes by significant traders can precede price movements.
- Compare the Stats page to understand which platforms offer the best liquidity and coverage for the categories you trade.
Tips
- Markets with probability near 50% are the most contested and often offer the best opportunities for research-driven traders who have an informational edge.
- High volume with low liquidity can indicate a market that is difficult to enter or exit at favorable prices. Prioritize markets with both high volume and high liquidity.
- Cross-platform price discrepancies tend to close over time. Persistent differences may indicate that one platform's traders have better information than another's.
- New markets often have mispriced probabilities before enough traders have evaluated them. The Trending page's newest markets section is useful for finding these early.
- The end date of a market matters. Markets closer to expiration tend to have probabilities that converge more sharply toward 0% or 100% as the outcome becomes clearer.
- Combine prediction market data with insights from other Blockcircle tools (Market Analysis, Whale Alpha, MTE) for a more complete picture of market sentiment and direction.