How to Estimate Crypto Beta with a Rolling Regression
A step-by-step walkthrough of regressing a token's excess returns against a benchmark to estimate beta, and why one full-sample number quietly lies to you.
Oct 24, 2026
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洞察与更新
来自 Blockcircle 团队的市场分析、产品更新和交易策略。
The archive.
Estimating the Reaction Function From What the Fed Chose
Guidance tells you what a committee says it will weigh. A fitted reaction function tells you what it has actually weighed. Here is the specification, the identification problems, and how to score it against the curve.
Oct 24, 2026
Turning Overweight and Underweight Labels Into Real Dollar Weights
Three overweights and two underweights do not add up on their own. Here is the funding-first arithmetic that turns the positioning row into trade sizes on a 40,000 dollar account.
Oct 24, 2026
Fiscal Dominance and What Rising Interest Costs Mean for Markets
The regime where debt service starts steering monetary policy. What the transition markers look like, why post-WWII repression is the template, and how to position for it.
Oct 24, 2026
Do Bitcoin CME Gaps Always Fill? Testing the Weekend Gap Trade
CME bitcoin gaps do not always fill, and the ones that fill fast are the ones you remember. Here is how to read fill base rates and trade toward a gap without lying to yourself.
